我们这里有外汇市场专家吗？(M+M+M！)

Jianjun Zhang wrote:


The latest report from the Chinese government says that the China's trade surplus with the US is still huge. I'd rather say appreciation of the Chinese Yuan is actually a natual process that happen sooner or later and its appreciation alone can't solve the problem of the surplus problem.

At least by now, changing RMB into any foreign currency is risky. Yes, Tingting, we can buy major foreign currencies at major banks now as long as it's not over 50,000 USD/year. Just show your ID card.

Latest exchange rate:

BOC buys per 100 USD (cash)
759.16

BOC sells per 100 USD (cash)
768.36

Tingting Huang wrote:
that Chinese can buy foreign currencies but there is still a cap there. That is not free floating. The Forex market is not ready yet for free floating.

[Edited at 2007-05-20 21:43]

Jianjun Zhang wrote:



I've read about some scholars in Hong Kong and Taiwan talk about a new Chinese Dollar system such as Euro in the EU.

The result is that the new dollar will be based on CNY and supercedes HKD and NTD. The new Chinese dollar may help strenthen and stablize the area's economy. Of course it's a long way to go, but once/if it comes true, free exchange would be really possible.

[Edited at 2007-05-21 00:10]

Jianjun Zhang wrote:

I've read about some scholars in Hong Kong and Taiwan talk about a new Chinese Dollar system such as Euro in the EU.

The result is that the new dollar will be based on CNY and supercedes HKD and NTD. The new Chinese dollar may help strenthen and stablize the area's economy. Of course it's a long way to go, but once/if it comes true, free exchange would be really possible.

[Edited at 2007-05-21 00:10]

Donglai Lou wrote:



In fact, the economists are keen on proposing one currency in Asia (China, Korea, Japan, Australia and other South East Asian countries). It seems that our government (PRC) lacks interest in this kind of proposal at the current stage.

Either for the greater china region or for the whole asia, the introduction of a single currencey fully depends on the political integration. So, it will be a long way to go.

jyuan_us wrote:

All set. You are wonderful.

chance wrote:

从来没有考虑过玩股，但觉得同胞们的热情和疯狂很可观

NEW YORK: Stocks wilted Wednesday as comments from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and worries about upcoming economic data deflated a rally fed by takeover activity.

Stocks initially rose, lifting the Dow Jones industrials briefly above 13,600 for the first time, after the market got a fresh load of deal-related news that included a possible bidding battle over aluminum producer Alcan Inc. But the excitement waned after a media report that Greenspan expressed concern about an eventual sharp decline in China's stock market — which has recently been hitting record highs.

Wall Street's mood also dampened when energy prices failed to ease despite a rebound in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories last week. And with key reports on durable goods and new home sales due for release Thursday and the long Memorial Day weekend looming, investors adopted a defensive stance.

Strong merger and acquisition activity has for weeks been the primary force lifting the Dow, which crossed over the 13,000 milestone less than a month ago. So after some cautionary comments from Greenspan, analysts were not surprised to see investors take a breather.

"He still carries a lot of clout," said Steven DeSanctis, small cap strategist with Prudential Equity Group, noting that U.S. investors are also very focused on the Chinese economy. "You get a data point like that and people start to take profits, get a little nervous."

NEW YORK: Stocks wilted Wednesday as comments from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and worries about upcoming economic data deflated a rally fed by takeover activity.

Stocks initially rose, lifting the Dow Jones industrials briefly above 13,600 for the first time, after the market got a fresh load of deal-related news that included a possible bidding battle over aluminum producer Alcan Inc. But the excitement waned after a media report that Greenspan expressed concern about an eventual sharp decline in China's stock market — which has recently been hitting record highs.

Wall Street's mood also dampened when energy prices failed to ease despite a rebound in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories last week. And with key reports on durable goods and new home sales due for release Thursday and the long Memorial Day weekend looming, investors adopted a defensive stance.

Strong merger and acquisition activity has for weeks been the primary force lifting the Dow, which crossed over the 13,000 milestone less than a month ago. So after some cautionary comments from Greenspan, analysts were not surprised to see investors take a breather.

"He still carries a lot of clout," said Steven DeSanctis, small cap strategist with Prudential Equity Group, noting that U.S. investors are also very focused on the Chinese economy. "You get a data point like that and people start to take profits, get a little nervous."

Tingting Huang wrote:

About 5 minutes ago, the CNBC on the money was talking about Greenspan's remark. One guest from the street.com was very skeptical about Greenspan's comment. His main point is before Chinese market's bull run started last year, the shanghai market had been languishing for decade while the chinese economy was growing at an average annual rate of 10%. Nobody said anything about that. Now the market finally gained momentum, people start worrying. What he said was true, and actually made sense. Yet, the Chinese market still looks too good.

wherestip wrote:



Tingting,

I really don't know anything about the Chinese stock markets, so it would be presumptuous for me to make any comments.

But I do think what Greenspan says has some weight though, at least here in the U. S. markets.



[Edited at 2007-05-24 00:32]

Tingting Huang wrote:

... but now those commentators are jumping all over Greenspan. He is unleashed now.

Tingting Huang wrote:



你朋友的预测基本上是比较准确的。最近中国股市很火，周末看中央4台报道一个年轻人2005年以7万块开始炒股，2006年资金已达两千万，可算是中国的“股神”。但他本人也告诫广大股民，如果不明白大盘走势，还是应该谨慎为是。我个人觉得中国股市应该会继续走高，但中间会有震荡，像暂时的下跌等等。上星期，中国股市的交易量超过了全亚洲市场的交易量，这确实让人有点担忧。现在中国股市持续走高的一个原因是太多的资金追逐数量有限的股票。需求远超出供给，价格自然就上涨。这也跟中国人缺少其它投资渠道有关。中国的储蓄存款率很低，加上通货膨胀，储蓄存款的回报是负增长，难怪中国人要到股市去赌一把。你朋友说的因为有政府控制，所以股市不会有大危机，其实不准确。最近央行行长，还有其他官员都表示过对股市可能会过热的担忧，但对中国股市一点影响都没有。其实现在中国政府的态度是要逐渐减少行政干预，让市场发挥作用。这个周末中国刚出台了新的允许QDII(qualified domestic institutional investor)投资海外的规定，这就是一个很好的例子。中国股市比起几年以前的情况已大有改善，规章制度逐渐走向规范化，不过股民还需对投资做好功课。这些需要时间，但个人认为，中国股市在今后几年里不会出现像2005年前长达10年多的萎靡。

daisy0079 wrote:

任何商品，只要买的人比卖的人多，价格总会上涨，股市的飙升也是如此。

现在这个牛市，开始时是靠机构操纵，后来是靠散户信心爆棚、纷纷入市，但不管怎样都是投机多于投资，股票市值不反映企业的盈利能力。这样的高市值就像沙滩上的城堡，不可能一直维持得住。股民都想捞一把就走，问题是牛市能持续多久，危机哪天来临，最终接盘的会是哪些人？

wherestip wrote:



daisy,

Well-said. You just described the greater fool theory.

As mentioned before, some prolonged bull markets could reach stratospheric levels. But when they come down to earth, you don't want to be the fool who's holding the bag.

That's why value investing is a much saner and safer way to play the market.


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greaterfooltheory.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigger_fool_theory



[Edited at 2007-05-24 11:34]